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VP2 and VP3 — Danish Water Action Plans

Background

Denmark implements the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) through multi-year Water Action Plans (Vandplaner, VP). TargetEcon has been developed to support cost-effectiveness analysis for these plans.

Plan Period Status in model
VP1 ~2009–2015 Pre-model (historical)
VP2 ~2015–2021 Implemented measures loaded as fixed parameters
VP3 ~2022–2027 Current plan — what TargetEcon optimizes for

VP2 in the model

VP2 results are loaded from a GDX file: 

$gdxin "VP2_OCT2021_Raphael_collective_measures"
$load x_VP2_p = x_VP2.l         // field measures
$load MW1x_VP2_p = MW1x_VP2.l   // MW1 mini-wetlands
$load MW2x_VP2_p = MW2x_VP2.l   // MW2 mini-wetlands
$load MW3x_VP2_p = MW3x_VP2.l   // MW3 mini-wetlands

Why this matters: 1. Fields already used in VP2 cannot be used again in VP3. Permanent VP2 measures block the same field–measure combination in VP3 via the mutual exclusion constraints (mutexc3, LRl_VP2, etc.). 2. VP2 MW installations set a minimum potential floor for VP3 MW (VP2_adapt = max(natural potential, VP2 implemented area)). 3. VP3 additonality only: MW_precalc1_noVP2 tracks only new VP3 MWs for the additonality calculation.

GDX file: VP2_OCT2021_Raphael_collective_measures — the VP2 solution from October 2021. This is Raphael's VP2 collective measures run.

VP2_Perm(j) = the subset of measures considered permanent from VP2: FO, WL, LRl, LRh, BZ10, BZ20. These are loaded and prevented from double-selection.

VP3 targets

VP3 N and P targets are loaded from: - N_targets_DEC2024.inc — N reduction targets by coastal catchment (k), in tons N/yr - P_targets_Dec2024.inc — P reduction targets by lake catchment, in kg P/yr

Both files were updated in December 2024. Earlier versions: - N_targets_DEC2024.inc (replaced earlier N target files) - P_targets_NOV23.inc and P_targets_NOV23_Brutto.inc (now commented out — replaced by Dec 2024 version)

Policy context

VP3 is Denmark's response to the WFD second cycle of River Basin Management Plans. The plan must demonstrate that Danish water bodies will reach "good ecological status" by 2027 (or justified exceptions). N and P targets are set by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (Miljøstyrelsen) based on ecological assessments of each water body.

Key feature of VP3 vs VP2: The Tripartite Agreement (2021) added mandatory area-based targets on top of the water quality targets — see Tripartite Agreement.

Open questions

  1. What is the exact reference for the Dec 2024 N and P target files — were these the final targets or still draft?
  2. How were VP2 implemented measures identified — is the GDX file based on actual implementation records or the VP2 model solution?
  3. Are there fields where VP2 "temporary" measures (CCS, CCW, etc.) should also block VP3 use?