Scenarios Index¶
All model runs and analyses documented in this wiki. Add a new entry here and create a scenario page whenever a new run is completed.
Planned scenarios¶
| Scenario | Targets | Tripartite | Status | Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline_NP | N + P | Active | Planned | Baseline_NP |
| N_only | N | Active | Planned | N_only |
| P_only | P | Active | Planned | P_only |
| No_tripartite | N + P | Inactive | Planned | No_tripartite |
| N_only_no_tripartite | N | Inactive | Planned | N_only_no_tripartite |
| Tripartite_cost_analysis | N + P | Comparison | Planned | Tripartite_cost_analysis |
Completed scenarios¶
No generic scenario pages have been completed yet.
Project-specific completed runs are now tracked under ../projects/index.md, beginning with P Project 2025 — Scenario 1.
Scenario matrix¶
Reading this table: rows = target scope, columns = tripartite constraint status.
| With Tripartite | Without Tripartite | |
|---|---|---|
| N + P | Baseline_NP | No_tripartite |
| N only | N_only | N_only_no_tripartite |
| P only | P_only | (not planned yet) |
Key derived numbers:
- Baseline_NP − N_only = cost of P targets (with tripartite)
- Baseline_NP − No_tripartite = cost of Tripartite Agreement (with both targets)
- N_only − N_only_no_tripartite = cost of Tripartite Agreement (N targets only)
- No_tripartite − N_only_no_tripartite = cost of P targets (without tripartite)
Future scenario ideas¶
| Scenario idea | Description | Motivation |
|---|---|---|
| Cost curve N | Run at multiple N target levels (e.g. 50%, 75%, 100% of VP3) | Reveals marginal cost curve for N reduction |
| Cost curve P | Run at multiple P target levels | Marginal cost curve for P |
| Sensitivity: WL N effect | Re-run Baseline with WL N=120/90/60 | Test sensitivity to the Jan 2026 parameter change |
| Sensitivity: WL P effect | Re-run with WL P effect restored | How much does WL P=0 matter? |
| B target | Add biodiversity target when B module is ready | Biodiversity |
| C target | Add climate target when C module is ready | Climate |
| Spatial targeting | Restrict measures to high P-loss fields (75th/90th percentile) | Test commented-out x.UP scenario code |
Scenario template¶
---
tags: [scenario]
date_run: YYYY-MM-DD
model_version: TargetEcon 2026
targets_active: [N, P]
tripartite: active|inactive
status: planned|in_progress|completed
---
# Scenario: [Name]
## Policy question
## Parameters
## Key results
## Measure mix
## Output files
## Notes & caveats
## Related scenarios